Monday 17 January 2011

Soldiers of fortune

Ugandans making it big in South Africa

It’s that warm summer morning, when it seems like Johannesburg is covered by a slow-moving hot air conditioner, in central Hillbrow, the traders go about calling out to buyers. They warm-heartedly refer to each other as doctor, brigadier, colonel, general, mugagga, Shaba wa Shaba, boss, king, depending on what job one is doing and how he is perceived among the growing community of Ugandans searching for riches in South Africa.

A trip to Wanderers Street in Hillbrow, jerks you into the Ugandan community, doing all sorts of jobs. Here, you find professionals, businessmen, quack traditional doctors, vendors and those selling assorted items.

First you notice the language; Luganda, but they quickly switch to Xhosa or Zulu as a customer approaches.

They go about selling clothes, bags, jewellery, foodstuffs and doing porterage. Then there are those frantically distributing leaflets advertising traditional healers from East Africa.

“I call them soldiers of fortune,” said George Awol, who owns a security firm, Awol Security, in Hillbrow.

Thousands of Ugandans travel by road to South Africa every year in search of employment. When they arrive in the country, either they proceed to Pretoria or remain in Johannesburg but most start as quack witchdoctors or pamphlet-distributing “boys” or “girls”.

Most say the entered South Africa through Zimbabwe, Botswana or Mozambique. Their heart-rendering stories of travelling for several days without food, swimming across rivers and jumping over razor wire at border points and riding on the back of trucks into South Africa is one of determination.

George Awol, has been here for 10 years, he says he has seen many come with nothing but now drive expensive cars and own apartments in several areas of Johannesburg.

“When they come, we show them what to do, how to start life, sell assorted items or distribute leaflets for traditional witchdoctors,” he said.

Awol’s office is just above the Park Station Market, in the downtown area of Hillbrow in South Africa. This market is not any different from Owino Market in downtown Kampala.

The market is located just behind Park Station, a stop for buses from other Southern African countries. This is where the majority of Ugandans sneaking into South Africa first land. in this market, they sell foodstuffs, clothes and electronics from China, crafts imported from Kenya or work in electronic workshops as well.

The chairman of the market is Ugandan. He declines to give me his name but says he is from Namugongo. He has been in South Africa for six years and deals in crafts. Chairman earns R1000-2000 (sh300,000 - 600,000) per day. He is building a house back home in Kira Sub-county.

inside the offices of Awol Security, are two Ugandans, Hakim, 23, and Siraji, 22, who have just arrived. They are semi literate but hope to make it big in future. Siraji and Hakim do porterage and distribute pamphlets for quack witchdoctors. They are paid between R30 to R50 (sh9,000 - sh15,000) per day. From George’s office, located on the fourth floor, one gets an aerial view of Park Station and Park Market and several streets of Hillbrow.

Awol’s office acts as a lodge at night for the many Ugandans searching for a better life in South Africa. “You can’t event get space for your legs in the night here,” said Awol. He is renting a whole floor, consisting of several rooms, which he sub-lets to Ugandans or lets them use them for free till they find their footing.

The cab driver, a Ugandan and an a staunch supporter of President Yoweri Museveni, does not go into specifics but tells me an estimated 20,000 semi-literate and literate Ugandans are working so hard that they drive expensive cars.

Bunya Serebe, is a proprietor of two colleges outside Johannesburg. His company, Zeal-Com Capitals Ltd, also deals in stationery, computer hardware and in his office is an advert for Herbal medicine. He does not go into details about his colleges or company profits, only answering my questions in general terms. Bunya’s office is well furnished and located in the upmarket area of Hillbrow.

He is the leader of the non-professional Ugandans living in South Africa and estimates them to be between 300,000 to 350,000.

Ssegawa is one of the many Ugandans who arrived in Park Station, ready to mint gold in Johannesburg, the city that habours 40% of the world’s gold.

The 34-year-old, a quack witchdoctor, has credited his success in this scam to his unrelenting search for success. From this business, Ssegawa has set up a modern, multipurpose internet café in Johannesburg’s central business district. He drives the latest model of BMW 3 series.

He left Uganda for South Africa seven years ago, after the company he was working for, Greenland insurance, folded. “I was going to Dubai for kyeyo but my friend suggested that we go to South Africa, that it is easy to get a job and fellow blacks would treat us well,” he says.

“When I got here, things were different; no one could employ me, even with my degree in accounting,” he remembers. Determined to make ends meet, Ssegawa got involved in the witchdoctor scam, first working for a lady who exploited him. He then moved to another, after which he and three other friends set up their own clinics. After a year, the three had made enough capital to enable each start their own business.

“I now own three ‘clinics’, from which I earn between R1,500 (R450,000)-R3,000 (sh900,000) a day. I employ 40 people, paying each R50 per day,” said Ssegawa.

He, however, says he feels bad for all the people who sit at a filthy table for hours, sometimes a day, feigning an intercession with spirits. Pain in this trade comes in many forms. There is the loss you feel about living off of the dregs of a societal illness. Then there is the moment of clarity when you realise you have become just like the old, sad men that you ridiculed in your younger, luckier days.

Then there is the anxiety explaining to your family what the source of your money is. “There is a sweltering unease that comes from watching loved ones twist uncomfortably when you give then a gift with the spoils from the scam,” he said. But none of the scam’s daily guilt is intrusive enough to force him out of the business. What is more, all of the inner indignity is cleaned by the huge profits.

“But what do I do? I am searching for a solution out of poverty and unemployment.”

Ssegawa does not believe in the herbs he sells. “What I do is to only play with a person’s mind.” When things don’t work and he is threatened by a client, he moves shop to another location. The front desk of Ssegawa’s clinic is neat. On the wall are pictures of backcloth and traditional artefacts. The examination room is dimly lit, and a mat is provided for clients. Unlike in Uganda, here the traditional doctors dress in suits and operate from very neat ‘clinics’. Similarity only comes in when a client has to be cleaned with certain herbs, remove shoes before stepping on the ‘holy’ ground and the dims lights or none at all.

Like him, many Ugandans are involved in this business. Bunya Serebe, a proprietor of several colleges in Johannesburg, defends them, saying it’s the only way out for those who end up conned in South Africa or seeking for a better life. This business has found fertile ground in the highly superstitious South African communities.

They believe that ancestors guide and protect the living through traditional healers. Due to these superstitious beliefs, sangomas (witchdoctors) are considered to be holy men and women who can bring good luck to their communities and chase away evil spirits.

As a result of this respect and the incentives that come with it, foreign traditional healers have flooded the market promising the highly superstitious Southern Africans heaven on earth. Ssegawa tells me they claim to have powers to cure all sorts of illnesses, make the poor rich, bring back lost love, win court cases, win the lotto or predict the future. Due to their aggressive adverts and alleged expertise, traditional witchdoctors from East Africa are now considered the best in the business of sorcery.

They are paid consultation fees ranging from R30 (sh12,000) to R60 (sh24,000) and clients are charged according to the problems they present. The healers demand to be paid in cash and cars. Since it is taboo to question traditional healers, they exploit that.

The Ugandan traditional healers rent rooms in towns for their business and you will always find them in groups. For those who sell the herbal medicine, they get it either from Uganda, Zimbabwe or rural South Africa.

Further shielding Ugandans in this trade is the South African law which recognises traditional medicine and it is common to find certificates hanging on the walls of these clinics, claiming they have attended traditional medicine courses in Uganda and other East African countries.

But this group has considerable wealth, with the majority driving expensive models of BMW cars, living in lavish apartments and putting up huge structures back home. They, however, do not want their identities revealed.

They give themselves titles such as Doctor or Professor Sula, Ndugu, Shaba Shaba. “I change names depending on circumstances,” said Ssegawa. Two hundred metres from Segawa’s ‘clinic’, located on Wanderers Street, is an internet café packed with students and other users, who I later learnt were mostly Ugandans. The students play computer games, chat, email and check on the latest news from home.

I asked them if they are skilled at using computers. “Of course, we are good,” says a student. Michael, 14, is a son to Ugandan parents who have lived here for eight years now. His parents, he says, own a college.

Minting gold
The café assistant, a 27-year-old university graduate, with a degree in social sciences, fills me in on the mentality of Ugandans working in South Africa. “The truth is, everyone here works hard, and they are here to make money, whatever it takes,” said Sherlyn Birungi.

“My boss is rich, his brothers and sisters are rich,” says Birungi. “They don’t worry about anything.” Her boss, she says, doubles as a witchdoctor and his sister owns a beauty salon and a restaurant.

Hillbrow is one of the most dangerous places to live in but a burgeoning business and professional class and the offspring of both groups — is only getting richer, more powerful and less accountable in this neglected part of South Africa.

No Rain in the Rainbow nation as Ugandans end on South Africa streets

HUNDREDS of Ugandans lured to South Africa with promises of education and job opportunities have ended up on Johannesburg streets empty-handed.

Some abandon their jobs expecting high pay only to discover too late that they are victims of a racket based in South Africa with contacts in Uganda. The conmen also target parents who want to get a good education for their children. The unsuspecting parents bite the attractive baits and pay large sums of money only to discover they have been duped in what is emerging as a big trans-border scam.

According to Sunday Vision investigations, a Ugandan graduate who responded to an advert in a newspaper for a job, paid sh2.4m and travelled to South Africa, ended up distributing hand bills for a traditional healer. He was paid (R30) sh9,000 per day and lived in a dilapidated one-bedroom house with 12 others.

Another Ugandan gave up his job at Roofings Ltd, sold his piece of land and household properties for a better life in South Africa. Upon arrival, the big job he had been promised was not available, but he was taught tricks to pretend as a witchdoctor. But he failed to do the job and now roams the streets of Hillbrow, a suburb of Johannesburg where many stranded Ugandans are languishing.

To survive, the Ugandans take on odd jobs and some do errands for witchdoctors. Witchcraft being lucrative in South Africa some of the Ugandans masquerade as traditional healers to earn a living.

It all started when Richard Musiime read an advert in one of the newspapers promising jobs, work permits or education in South Africa.

Richard (not real name) had just graduated from university and after discussing with the recruitment firm based in Johannesburg and with a branch in Kampala about the opportunities, he was sure of earning gold once in South Africa.

Being from a well-to-do family, his parents paid the R8,000 (sh2.4m) that the firm had made them believe would get him the job.

After paying the money, he was then asked to travel by road to South Africa, given phone contacts and in each country he arrived, he surely found someone waiting at the border point, purportedly to be working for the company and helped him enter through.

Not until he reached Johannesburg was he abandoned. He ended up in the suburb of Mayville.

Stranded, Richard ended up working for a traditional healer, distributing hand bills for traditional doctors from East Africa, for a pay of R30 (sh9,000) per day and later sleeping in a one-bedroom dilapidated house which he shared with 12 others.

Richard is not alone. Isaac Wasike abandoned his job at Roofings Ltd, sold his piece of land in Zana and his household properties for a better life in South Africa.

He was invited by a friend, who told him they could run a lucrative business in Johannesburg. Upon arrival in South Africa, Wasike’s friend confessed to him that he was a quack witchdoctor. With nothing to come back to, Wasike, 32, bought the idea, injected R10,000 (sh3m) into the business and another R5,000 (sh1.5m) allegedly to process his work permit.

on the streets of Hillbrow
Wasike was taken through the tricks of convincing clients into parting with huge sums of money or property. However, upon reporting for work, the landlord informed him that the police had been looking for his friend and he owed rent arrears. He quickly called his friend, who promised to come to his rescue but that was the last time he heard from him.

Wasike now walks and sleeps on the streets of Hillbrow, a suburb of Johannesburg, where many stranded Ugandans are languishing. For a living, he is distributing pamphlets advertising witchdoctors’ services on how to bring back lost love.

Peter Mukasa
He worked for a financial institution, but always looked forward to a better life and when he was told of lucrative jobs in the city of gold; he quickly resigned, packed his bags and left for Johannesburg.

“My intention was to transform my life. My friends had assured me it was better here and we all knew how fast Ugandans living in South Africa moved up the economic ladder. They usually buy land and set up businesses and properties within a short space of time. That’s why I resigned my job,” Mukasa, 27, said.

Mukasa, however, refused to deposit the required sh3m.

“I told them I would give them the money once I arrived. In every country I went through, someone was waiting for me to ensure I was on a bus. They would then give me telephone contacts for a person waiting in the next country,” Mukasa said.

“When I arrived at Park Station, the man I had been in contact with instructed me to deposit the money on a certain bank account before he could fetch me. But when I told him I would only do that after meeting him, he said he was in Swaziland and switched off his phone,” Mukasa said.

He ended up distributing pamphlets adverting penis enlargement before making his way to Pretoria and now stays with “a friend”.

Musiime was lucky that his parents had contacts in South Africa, who tracked him down to Mayville and he is now back home. But many young Ugandans have ended up on the streets of South Africa, after being enticed with promises of high-paying jobs and benefits.

After using up their life savings to secure these jobs, they arrived in South Africa only to be asked to distribute pamphlets advertising quack traditional doctors. Some are kept in bondage with threats that the police will arrest them because they are living in South Africa illegally.

The scheme appears to be operated by those based in downtown area of Hillbrow and a Pretoria-based Ugandan who advertises in Uganda’s newspapers and on radio stations.

This organisation has a branch on Entebbe road. It has posters plastered around Kampala.

When someone responds to the advert, they are told to deposit up to R10,000 (sh3m) in a certain bank account to enable recruiters to sort out paperwork with prospective employers and to secure work permits.

When I sought their help to travel to South Africa and that I was seeking to work in Johannesburg. I was told to take four passport photos, a photocopy of my passport and a registration fee of sh10,000.

I was asked to pay $1,000 in order for them to process my work permit and I was given an assurance that its parent company in South Africa would have my work permit and temporary accommodation ready by the time I arrived there.

The unsuspecting victims are always instructed to travel by road to South Africa. When they arrive in the country, either they discover their recruiters have disappeared or they are turned into pamphlet-distributing “boys” or “girls”.

The victims are told that they don’t need a visa to enter South Africa. Indeed victims like Michael Kagolo got into South Africa without a visa or having his passport stamped at any border point.

The racket seems to involve customs officials at the different border points, who let in the victim without any documentation. It is only at the South African border that the victim’s name is written on an A4-size piece of paper.

Stephen Twinoburyo, who lives in Pretoria narrates that early this year a Ugandan boy, phoned him from the Musina border after entering South Africa and said the person he was going to see had said that Twinoburyo, as the AUPSA (The Association of Ugandan Professionals in South Africa) chairman, would assist transport him to Johannesburg since he was busy at the time and was no longer reachable on phone.

“I told him that I live in Pretoria and that there is no way the ‘host person’ could have expected me to drive to Musina, 400 km away, to fetch him,” he said.

students not spared
What is more shocking is that the young professionals and students are lured to South Africa by Ugandans who are respected and well connected at home.

Those left humiliated and stranded thousands of miles away from home, walk the streets of Johannesburg, Pretoria or at the borders of Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

A section of those operating the racket are, however, witchdoctors but masquerade as college principals offering scholarships or placement agencies.

MOLLY AND GRACE
The two students left Uganda with the hope of furthering their education at a college in Pretoria. Their parents were promised scholarships. But the two are now working in a restaurant in order to survive and share a three by four square metre bedroom with seven other girls.

Wilber Onyango Randari, a Ugandan businessman in Pretoria who runs Face of Africa restaurant, employs some of the students who are leaving in dire conditions in South Africa.
“The students approached me one day, they told me they were from Uganda and needed help,” said Onyango.

He narrated that when he visited the place where these students were living, “it was appalling. I found seven of them cramped in one tiny room,” said Onyango.

“I then approached the Brooklyn College principal, who told me that they only offered them school fees and the students have to cater for the rest,” he said.

Onyango said the circular, issued out to the parents of these students indicated that they needed only sh100,000 for accommodation and sh50,000 for feeding. This, Onyango said, is not even half of what the students needed. The cheapest accommodation would go for R800, (sh240,000).

Patrick Kyazze, who owns an internet business in Pretoria, said he is usually approached by Ugandan students who have been promised fully paid bursaries.

“It is really bad. They end up distributing pamphlets, and when they go to the embassy, they are told that hundreds of other people had sought help in a similar way,” he said.

Brooklyn College offers certificate courses and it is run by Ivan Semwanga together with his wife Zarina Zaitun.

Semwanga recently offered 50 scholarships to the Kingdom of Buganda and this offer was specifically for tuition. Scholars are supposed to meet their own travel and accommodation costs.

A copy of a recommendation letter for one of the students, James Yiga, purportedly signed by an official on behalf of the kingdom’s state minister for education, Ahmed Lwasa, states that only tuitions fees would be covered.

“Both the students and the kingdom know that we only offer tution and they are expected to meet upkeep costs,” said Zaitun, CEO Brooklyn College.

She said the stranded students turned up without admissions from her college.

The South African High Commission in Uganda said they heard of the college when the Buganda kingdom approached them for visas but asked for documents, which the education minister is yet to avail them.

The high commission warned those travelling to South Africa not to expect gold once there.

Ugandans living in South Africa describe the racket as composed of semi-literate Ugandans.

“They are the kind of people you would not find in the mainstream Ugandan community because of the nature of their jobs,” said Twinoburyo. “They employ a number of people to run their units — thus going around collecting money.”

The South African police in Pretoria in June arrested and prosecuted four Ugandans, one Nigerian and two South African citizens for running illegal colleges.

“This follows the closing down of more illegal colleges across the country by police. Even more sarcastically, some of these colleges offered training courses in policing, when in fact only government’s the police colleges authentically offer such training,” said South African Minister of Police, Nathi Mthethwa.

colleges closed
The operation to crack down on illegal colleges, some run by Ugandans, started in May and by last month seven arrests had been made and 14 colleges closed.

“Instead of refraining from their illegal practices, these ‘directors’ ignored our call. Now they are feeling the heat. We will ensure they receive the harshest punishment because their actions clearly amount to criminality,” said Mthethwa.

“Beyond just arresting these scoundrels who rob our children of their future, we are also embarking on a campaign to name and shame them publicly; so that we also warn all potential students not to fall victim of suc rackets,” he added.

During the raids, police confiscated and are in possession of some of the ‘certificates’ which are issued to students upon completion of their studies. Some of these fake certificates even resemble those issued by the South African Qualifications Authority, and other certification bodies.

The South African Consular in Uganda, Johannes Van Niekerk, urged parents and students to verify with the high commission in Uganda before enrolling in any college.

Blame on Uganda high commission
The Ugandan community in South Africa, however, believes the Ugandan High Commission in South Africa is not doing enough to save its citizens who have fallen victim to this crime.

The high commission has not responded to queries sent to it two weeks ago.

“When you approach the embassy, they ask you to fill some forms and tell you to pay $50 for a temporary travel document. Some of these people have gone for days without food, got no where to sleep and the high commission still asks them for money,” noted a Ugandan.

“The embassy is there not only to protect Uganda’s interests here, but also to help Ugandans back home with relevant information that emanates from here. It’s high time the embassy stepped forward and protected Ugandans,” said Twinoburyo.

Ugandan ‘doctors’ top list of crooks
They are commonly known as doctor (or sometimes professor), but they are Uganda‘s biggest unwanted export to South Africa.

The South African communities are highly superstitious and believe that ancestors guide and protect the living through traditional healers. Due to these superstitious beliefs, sangomas are considered to be holy men and women who can bring good luck to their communities and chase away evil spirits.
As a result of this respect and many incentives that go with this worthwhile healing profession, foreign traditional healers have flooded the market promising the highly superstitious Southern Africans heaven on earth.

The majority of these traditional healers are from Nigeria and Uganda. They claim to have powers to cure all sorts of illnesses, make the poor rich, bring back lost love, win court cases, win the lotto and predict the future.

Due to their aggressive adverts and alleged expertise, they are now considered the best in the business of sorcery.

They are paid consultation fees ranging from R40 (sh12,000) to R80 (sh24,000) and clients are charged according to the problems they present.

The healers demand as payment cash, cars and since its taboo to question traditional healers in sections of South African, they exploit that and go to the extent of asking for credit cards with threats that if the clients refuse, they will lose their family members.
“It’s an activity they wouldn’t carry out in Uganda but clearly, it’s one of Uganda’s biggest exports to South Africa,” said Priscilla Namukasa, a Ugandan working for the South African government.
The Ugandan traditional healers rent rooms in towns for their business and you will always find them in groups. For those who sell the herbal medicine, it’s difficult to know the source as they never tell you.

The South African law recognises traditional medicine and it is common to find certificates hanging on the walls of these clinics, claiming they have attended traditional medicine courses in Uganda and other East African countries.

They give themselves titles such as Doctor or Professor Sula, Ndugu, Shaba Shaba etc. They also use phony names, usually Islamic names to advertise their trade.

There are tales of those who have been asked to deposit large sums of money which the sangoma goes on to mutiply, others have been asked to surrender their cars and usually when the victims do these, they close shop and relocate to another town.

South African Police act
In August, a quack Ugandan traditional healer, caught in the get-rich-scam was arraigned in Nelspruit Magistrate’s court.
Police spokesperson Leonard Hlathi said in an interview with Sapa newspaper that the Ugandan traditional healer allegedly demanded R29,000 (sh8.7m) from a man who came to be cleansed, in exchange for a share of R900,000 (sh270m).

The healer claimed he wanted the money to buy 13 cows, which needed to be sacrificed so he could open a metal box containing the sh270m.

When the victim delivered R29,000 (sh8.7m), the healer allegedly demanded R10,000 (sh3m) more, saying he needed more cows. He then approached the police, who arrested the Ugandan.

“He was found to be in possession of a fraudulent Zimbabwean passport and fraudulent asylum permit,” said the police in a statement.

Will independents change political landscape in 2011?

WITH the parliamentary nominations concluded, the NRM has emerged again as the largest party alongside a sharply increased representation of independent MPs, but what will their impact be come 2011?

The Independents will most likely capture critical new power to redraw constituency maps and influence local elections for five years to come.

Independents are likely to have a bigger influence in the next Parliament than the current ones.

Results from the nominations indicate that 50% of those successfully nominated are playing the independent card. Unlike in 2006, where some ministers were nominated unopposed, this time all 70 ministers have two or more independent candidates standing against them.

While in 2006, 356 were nominated as independent, preliminary results show the is close to 500 candidates this time round.

Makerere University political analysts, however, predict that the increased number of independent candidates will not affect NRM’s dominance in Parliament in the next five years. The Independents, analysts said, are not driven by ideological difference but anger and grudges.

“The Independents are only independent in name, even if they win, they have no ideology to drive them. I don’t think they pause any threat either to the opposition or NRM,” say researcher and history don, Mwambutsya Ndebesa.

Political analyst Golooba Mutebi agrees: “I don’t think that the large number (of Independents) is going to change NRM’s parliamentary dominance that much. Once they get to Parliament, like in 2006, they will side with or sign a memorandum with the NRM.”

The NRM is fielding 364 candidates, having a contender for each constituency and special interest groups. Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has 288 candidates nominated, Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) has 135 while the Democratic Party (DP) has 120 nominees. Uganda Federal Alliance (UFA) has 66, People’s Development Party (PDP) has 18 and 33 are nominated on the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) ticket.

While the opposition has more candidates nominated than it did in 2006, 660 compared to 355, it is not clear whether they will capture more seats than NRM of the over 333 seats in the August House.

In 2006, the NRM had 277 nominees, UPC 88, FDC 175, DP 72, JEEMA nine, CP five and six smaller parties each fielded one candidate.

In the outgoing parliament, the NRM dominated with 221 seats; FDC held 38 seats, UPC 9, DP 10, JEEMA and CP each held one seat. The Independents are 38; with the majority leaning towards the ruling NRM and UPC.

Electoral Commission data shows that there are 238 directly elected seats, 112 for women representatives and 25 seats available for special interest groups.

Political analysts note that the Independents are the result of weak legislations. They said existing legislations are not sufficient enough to guide the development of democracy under multiparty politics.

“This symbolises a failed democracy. It means political parties are dysfunctional,” said Aaron Mukwaya. “Therefore, we should expect a weak Parliament; that is grudging as those voted will be because they are popular or because people are angry.”

The opposition, analysts predict, will lose more seats in the 2011 general elections as they have failed to reconcile their differences while the NRM dominance in Parliament will not be threatened by the Independents.

Ndebesa said victory in the 2011 parliamentary elections will be determined by two factors: organisational structure and political factors.

“The opposition has the political factor but the NRM has an edge in organisational structure. It has grown a lot in the last five years in terms of projects and money. It also used intimidation in areas where opposition scored highly in 2006,” said Ndebesa.

He said that the opposition has failed to translate their political support based on issues of poverty, poor social services and poor infrastructure into votes.

“It is not enough to have political factors in your favour if you have no capacity to translate them into votes,” says Ndebesa.

Despite the numerous factors playing in its favour, the NRM is faced with the challenge of dealing with Independents in 2011 parliamentary elections.

Party spokesperson Ofwono Opondo, admits that Independents are a threat to the party. “Our own internal processes were flawed, it would be unfair for NRM to employ the hammer on them,” he explains.

The NRM, like the opposition parties — FDC, UPC and DP is, however, confident that the Independents will not beat its flag bearers in the elections.

In fact, FDC and NRM are confident that factors such as the strength of their party and presidential candidates will greatly reduce the chances of independent candidates winning.

“We do not think they are a threat to NRM. We don’t think they will be trouble makers in the House, because they are riding on the popularity of the party presidential candidate and the strength of the party,” says Ofwono.

According to Ofwono, the party is under pressure from those nominated on the party ticket to sort out the question of the Independents. “But we won’t employ the hammer now, but perhaps after the grace period we can decide to go all out in on decampaigning them,” says Ofwono.

A committee headed by party vice chairman Haji Moses Kigongo is arbitrating and hoping to reconcile the Independents and the party before campaigns begin on December 16.

The FDC is, however, taking a step further and wooing the independent candidates to its side. So far, they have succeed in Lango region, where seasonal candidates; Cecelia Ogwal, B’leo Ojok, Ben Wacha and Angiro Gutomoi have agreed to work with them.

NRM says that they will only reach a working agreement with incumbents who have a leaning towards the NRM and those who recently crossed from other parties such as Okwir Rwabwoni, Agnes Akiror and Alex Onzima.

The UPC on the other hand is playing the proverbial ostrich by burying its head in the sand. “We define an independent as one who went through the party primaries but then decides to go as independent. For now, we don’t have any,” says UPC secretary general Joseph Bossa.

As December 16 draws closer, parties have made clear their strongholds and battlegrounds.

While the NRM is confident it will win some opposition-controlled constituencies, analysts predicted opposition parties will succeed in holding onto constituencies it’s already commanding.

They point to parts of Lango, Acholi, Teso, Busoga, Buganda, as regions where the opposition have got political capital and could gain considerably. The areas of Masaka, Kasese and Kampala are predicted to go to the opposition.

According to analysts, the opposition will retain Agago County, where the incumbent is leader of opposition in Parliament, Terego County where opposition chief whip Kassiano Wadri is incumbent. In Budadiri West, the incumbent, Nandala Mafabi, will most likely retain his seat.

Also the seats of Aruu, Aswa, Kasilo, Kumi, Erute North and South, Busongora County, Tororo County, Bukedea, Ngora and Bukoto County are considered safe for the opposition. The seats for Woman MP of Soroti, Dokolo, Kitgum, Arua, Kaberamaido and Kasese are also seen as safe.

Ten of the biggest for the NRM might come from Kampala Central, Makindye East, Soroti Municipality, Alebtong County, Otuke County, Amolatar Woman MP Seat, Kyadondo County East and Rubaga North constituencies.

Political analysts at Makerere University say the places where NRM has an opportunity to make inroads into opposition territory will depend on the individual candidate’s acceptance by the voters.

At present, opposition parties are aiming at breaking the NRM’s stranglehold by securing votes from youth, woman, as well as urban elite in the 238 directly elected constituencies countrywide.

The battle for control of Parliament will focus on a handful of toss-up races; that of Budadiri West between the incumbent Nathan Nandala Mafabi, and minister for presidency Beatrice Wabudea. Also to watch is the contest between incumbent MP for Oyam South Ishaa Otto and Betty Amongi. The Lwemiyaga MP race between incumbent Theodore Ssekikubo and his long time rival Patrick Nkalubo. The battle for West Budama County between incumbent Emmanuel Otaala and his arch-rival Jacob Oboth Oboth.

In Kabale, the fight for Woman MP seat will be on between state minister Hope Mwesigye and Ronah Rita. The Rukiga County seat has always been a battleground and the same players, the incumbent Adison Kakuru and FDC’s Jack Sabiti will tussel it out again.

While UPC points out that it has got high chances of winning 100 seats, the DP points to its strongholds as the constituencies of Kyadondo North and South constituencies, Busiro South, North and East, Masaka Municipality, Kalungu, Bukoto East and South, Nakawa Division, Kawempe North and South, Mukono Municipality, Arua Municipality Mukono South, Buikwe South and Butambala.

The DP sees its battlegrounds as being Mawokota, Kalungu West, Rubaga South and North constituencies and several in Isingiro.

However, the three counties of Buikwe South, North and West will be the battleground for opposition parties as they all claim it as their stronghold. Currently DP candidate Lulume Bayiga is MP Buikwe South. The NRM controls North and an Independent Norman Muwulize is MP Buikwe West.

The NRM hopes to battle in Mbarara Municipality, where FDC John Kazoora is seen as the stronger candidate, Bugabula South, where NRM incumbent Simon Menhya, an Independent with leaning towards the NRM will tussel it out with FDC vice-Chairperson Salaamu Musumba. NRM also see Bugweri County, where FDC candidate Abdu Katuntu is running as a challenge.

In Buganda, Ofwono says the party will retain all its seats except some in Wakiso District. In Kampala, he says, the vulnerable area is Kawempe.

The seats of Bukoto Central, Kalungu East, Bufumbira East, Dokolo, Vurra and Mwenge counties are predicted to go to the opposition.

In Kasese District, a number of seats held by the NRM are vulnerable as the FDC has made inroads in the last five years, taking advantage of the fight for the restoration of the Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu (Rwenzururu Kingdom).

The NRM is claiming that they are currently in the lead as expected but what they did not expect was that they would have a large number of Independents.

With several contentious parliamentary races to decide, NRM is praying for an outright victory rather than a situation where it may have to depend on the Independent support to pass critical legislation in the house.

Does north still love Besigye?

BEATRICE Alanyo, 31, is a mother of two and a widow. She lost her husband Patrick Olara to a disease she only describes as strange.

Alanyo recently returned to Opit village after spending much of her life in a camp for internally displaced people. She has gardens of food and her children go to Modem Primary School, also in Opit, Gulu District. they are pupils under the Universal Primary Education scheme.

Alango is happy there is peace but dissatisfied with the rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts by the Government in the region.

Sunday Vision found her at Kizza Besigye’s rally at Opit trading centre.

“I voted for Besigye in 2006 and will vote for him again,” she says.

“I want change and Besigye will deliver on his promises to us,” Alango said.

Alango was forced out of her home aged only 11 years, as were hundreds of other children in northern Uganda. She grew up in the camps.

Her views on the elections are shared by older residents like Alphonsio Odur, 68, and Constantino Lokung of Palabek, 64.

“Twenty five years is a long time. We want change and want to see what Besigye can do for us,” said Odur.

Lokung points to a more pertinent issue.

“We are resting, just resting, Joseph Kony is still alive and can come back any time,” he says.

the three agree on voting for Besigye but doubt if he will be president when the votes are counted on February 18.

“We don’t know how the rest will vote. Northern Uganda is always votes Beisgye,” says Odur.

Northern Uganda, including Acholi, has always votes against President Museveni — Besigye 2001, 2006 and Paul Ssemogerere in 1996.

Besigye’s campaign message is focusing on the cause of the 20-year war and the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the region. But above all, he laboured to point out that this time round, he will win the presidency.

While Besigye’s supporters assured him of their votes, they kept asking if their vote would not go to waste like in the 2001 and 2006 elections.

He told the people that the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is now much more organised and has got structures.

Besigye said in 2001, political parties were not allowed to operate and in 2006, when the political parties were allowed to function, FDC was only a year old and in addition, he spent more time in Luzira Prison.

“My answer to the question of whether it is possible to defeat Museveni is a definite yes and he will be defeated,” Besigye said.

“What remains is for us to guard the ballot box. We shall collect our own results and there is nothing in the law that will stop us. the law allows for that,” he said.

He told supporters that because of re-organisation, FDC defeated NRM in Mbale Municipality, Bugweri and Mukono constituencies.

“these are signs that we have gained the capacity to protect our votes, even in areas where the NRM was rigging,” he said.

Besides, holding three main rallies in Acholi sub-region, he changed tactics this time, holding several small rallies in the villages where supporters, tending to their gardens or selling foodstuffs welcomed him. His message to them was of the looming change, assuring his supporters in Luo: “Alokaloka tye kabinu” (change is coming).

“Be confident, be firm, change is coming,” he would assure them.

At the rallies, Besigye said people in northern Uganda were right all along for voting against the NRM as it never kept its promises to Ugandans.

Results of the past three elections, show Museveni’s popularity dropping by 10% in each election and Besigye noted that come February, Museveni will not garner the needed 51% to be declared winner.

Besigye said what used to be favourable areas for Museveni like Buganda, Busoga and Bunyoro were no longer going to vote for him after the many problems the Government inflicted on the people in the past few years.

He said the factors playing in their favour include the current stand-off between the central government and the Kingdom of Buganda, the closure of Bugisu Co-operative Union (BCU), the land wrangles in Bunyoro and the jiggers killing the people of Busoga.

Leaders and MPs from Buganda led by former Katikkiro Joseph Mulwanyamuli Ssemogerere, told the voters that the people of Buganda were united in their support for Besigye and “we are sorry for not having voted for Besigye in the past”.

Nandala Mafabi, who led the group from Bugisu, cited the current developments in the management of BCU as reason enough to vote out Museveni.

Besigye told the people that for 25 years, the people of Busoga supported Museveni and yet there is no much development in the area and the “Basoga are dying of jiggers”.

At each of his rallies, he ran through the pertinent issues that the IPC hope to implement once in power. Top on the list is the reconstruction of northern Uganda and the sectors of education and health where he promises to double teachers’ pay in next year’s budget and make available free healthcare services to all.

He said Museveni and his Government should not claim credit for the prevailing peace in the region, as they opposed the peace talks in Juba.

Besigye said there was need for Museveni to take responsibility and apologise to the people for the atrocities committed against them during the two-decade conflict while he was President.

Besigye described NRM leaders in the north as “brokers”, who knew nothing about the yellow bus they were calling people to. He regretted having worked as Museveni’s doctor during the five-year bush war that brought him to power.

“I have more responsibility than all the other Ugandans because I am responsible for bringing Museveni to power. If I had not treated Museveni during the war, maybe these problems would not have been there,” Besigye said.

Besigye was a personal doctor to President Museveni during the National Resistance Army bush war, from 1980-1985.

Besigye said his government would correct the wrongs the NRM Government had committed against Ugandans.

Gulu's love for Besigye

FORUM for Democratic Change (FDC) presidential candidate Kizza Besigye’s convoy paralysed Gulu town on Friday as he held his final rally in Acholi sub-region.

Thousands matched the streets of Gulu chanting ‘Besigye, our president’ as women swept the streets and men cleared the way for him.

Repeated recital of his party’s slogan ‘One Uganda, One People’ echoed through the town, forcing those who had chosen to stay in their shops and houses to line the streets as Besigye’s convoy snaked through Gulu’s main street.

Besigye arrived at Boma grounds at about 4:00pm to an exciting welcome and chants from his supporters.

The rally was also punctuated with blessings from Acholi elders, gifts from his supporters and some people crossing from the NRM party and declaring their support for Besigye.

At the rally, Besigye said people in northern Uganda were right all along for voting against the NRM as it had never kept its promises to Ugandans.

Besigye assured the people that this time round the Inter-Party Cooperation would win the elections as it was much more organised and had grassroots structure.

He called on his supporters to guard the votes at their polling stations until the final tally was made.

“What remains is for us to guard the ballot box. We shall collect our own results and there is nothing in the law that will stop us. The law allows that,” Besigye said.

He told supporters that because of re-organisation, FDC defeated NRM in Mbale municipality, Bugweri and Mukono.

“These are signs that we have gained the capacity to protect our votes, even in areas where the NRM was rigging,” Besigye said.

He said Museveni and his Government should not claim credit for the prevailing peace in the region, as they opposed the peace talks in Juba.

Besigye said there was need for Museveni to take responsibility and apologise to the people for the atrocities committed against them during the two decade conflict while he was President.