Will independents change political landscape in 2011?

WITH the parliamentary nominations concluded, the NRM has emerged again as the largest party alongside a sharply increased representation of independent MPs, but what will their impact be come 2011?

The Independents will most likely capture critical new power to redraw constituency maps and influence local elections for five years to come.

Independents are likely to have a bigger influence in the next Parliament than the current ones.

Results from the nominations indicate that 50% of those successfully nominated are playing the independent card. Unlike in 2006, where some ministers were nominated unopposed, this time all 70 ministers have two or more independent candidates standing against them.

While in 2006, 356 were nominated as independent, preliminary results show the is close to 500 candidates this time round.

Makerere University political analysts, however, predict that the increased number of independent candidates will not affect NRM’s dominance in Parliament in the next five years. The Independents, analysts said, are not driven by ideological difference but anger and grudges.

“The Independents are only independent in name, even if they win, they have no ideology to drive them. I don’t think they pause any threat either to the opposition or NRM,” say researcher and history don, Mwambutsya Ndebesa.

Political analyst Golooba Mutebi agrees: “I don’t think that the large number (of Independents) is going to change NRM’s parliamentary dominance that much. Once they get to Parliament, like in 2006, they will side with or sign a memorandum with the NRM.”

The NRM is fielding 364 candidates, having a contender for each constituency and special interest groups. Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has 288 candidates nominated, Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) has 135 while the Democratic Party (DP) has 120 nominees. Uganda Federal Alliance (UFA) has 66, People’s Development Party (PDP) has 18 and 33 are nominated on the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) ticket.

While the opposition has more candidates nominated than it did in 2006, 660 compared to 355, it is not clear whether they will capture more seats than NRM of the over 333 seats in the August House.

In 2006, the NRM had 277 nominees, UPC 88, FDC 175, DP 72, JEEMA nine, CP five and six smaller parties each fielded one candidate.

In the outgoing parliament, the NRM dominated with 221 seats; FDC held 38 seats, UPC 9, DP 10, JEEMA and CP each held one seat. The Independents are 38; with the majority leaning towards the ruling NRM and UPC.

Electoral Commission data shows that there are 238 directly elected seats, 112 for women representatives and 25 seats available for special interest groups.

Political analysts note that the Independents are the result of weak legislations. They said existing legislations are not sufficient enough to guide the development of democracy under multiparty politics.

“This symbolises a failed democracy. It means political parties are dysfunctional,” said Aaron Mukwaya. “Therefore, we should expect a weak Parliament; that is grudging as those voted will be because they are popular or because people are angry.”

The opposition, analysts predict, will lose more seats in the 2011 general elections as they have failed to reconcile their differences while the NRM dominance in Parliament will not be threatened by the Independents.

Ndebesa said victory in the 2011 parliamentary elections will be determined by two factors: organisational structure and political factors.

“The opposition has the political factor but the NRM has an edge in organisational structure. It has grown a lot in the last five years in terms of projects and money. It also used intimidation in areas where opposition scored highly in 2006,” said Ndebesa.

He said that the opposition has failed to translate their political support based on issues of poverty, poor social services and poor infrastructure into votes.

“It is not enough to have political factors in your favour if you have no capacity to translate them into votes,” says Ndebesa.

Despite the numerous factors playing in its favour, the NRM is faced with the challenge of dealing with Independents in 2011 parliamentary elections.

Party spokesperson Ofwono Opondo, admits that Independents are a threat to the party. “Our own internal processes were flawed, it would be unfair for NRM to employ the hammer on them,” he explains.

The NRM, like the opposition parties — FDC, UPC and DP is, however, confident that the Independents will not beat its flag bearers in the elections.

In fact, FDC and NRM are confident that factors such as the strength of their party and presidential candidates will greatly reduce the chances of independent candidates winning.

“We do not think they are a threat to NRM. We don’t think they will be trouble makers in the House, because they are riding on the popularity of the party presidential candidate and the strength of the party,” says Ofwono.

According to Ofwono, the party is under pressure from those nominated on the party ticket to sort out the question of the Independents. “But we won’t employ the hammer now, but perhaps after the grace period we can decide to go all out in on decampaigning them,” says Ofwono.

A committee headed by party vice chairman Haji Moses Kigongo is arbitrating and hoping to reconcile the Independents and the party before campaigns begin on December 16.

The FDC is, however, taking a step further and wooing the independent candidates to its side. So far, they have succeed in Lango region, where seasonal candidates; Cecelia Ogwal, B’leo Ojok, Ben Wacha and Angiro Gutomoi have agreed to work with them.

NRM says that they will only reach a working agreement with incumbents who have a leaning towards the NRM and those who recently crossed from other parties such as Okwir Rwabwoni, Agnes Akiror and Alex Onzima.

The UPC on the other hand is playing the proverbial ostrich by burying its head in the sand. “We define an independent as one who went through the party primaries but then decides to go as independent. For now, we don’t have any,” says UPC secretary general Joseph Bossa.

As December 16 draws closer, parties have made clear their strongholds and battlegrounds.

While the NRM is confident it will win some opposition-controlled constituencies, analysts predicted opposition parties will succeed in holding onto constituencies it’s already commanding.

They point to parts of Lango, Acholi, Teso, Busoga, Buganda, as regions where the opposition have got political capital and could gain considerably. The areas of Masaka, Kasese and Kampala are predicted to go to the opposition.

According to analysts, the opposition will retain Agago County, where the incumbent is leader of opposition in Parliament, Terego County where opposition chief whip Kassiano Wadri is incumbent. In Budadiri West, the incumbent, Nandala Mafabi, will most likely retain his seat.

Also the seats of Aruu, Aswa, Kasilo, Kumi, Erute North and South, Busongora County, Tororo County, Bukedea, Ngora and Bukoto County are considered safe for the opposition. The seats for Woman MP of Soroti, Dokolo, Kitgum, Arua, Kaberamaido and Kasese are also seen as safe.

Ten of the biggest for the NRM might come from Kampala Central, Makindye East, Soroti Municipality, Alebtong County, Otuke County, Amolatar Woman MP Seat, Kyadondo County East and Rubaga North constituencies.

Political analysts at Makerere University say the places where NRM has an opportunity to make inroads into opposition territory will depend on the individual candidate’s acceptance by the voters.

At present, opposition parties are aiming at breaking the NRM’s stranglehold by securing votes from youth, woman, as well as urban elite in the 238 directly elected constituencies countrywide.

The battle for control of Parliament will focus on a handful of toss-up races; that of Budadiri West between the incumbent Nathan Nandala Mafabi, and minister for presidency Beatrice Wabudea. Also to watch is the contest between incumbent MP for Oyam South Ishaa Otto and Betty Amongi. The Lwemiyaga MP race between incumbent Theodore Ssekikubo and his long time rival Patrick Nkalubo. The battle for West Budama County between incumbent Emmanuel Otaala and his arch-rival Jacob Oboth Oboth.

In Kabale, the fight for Woman MP seat will be on between state minister Hope Mwesigye and Ronah Rita. The Rukiga County seat has always been a battleground and the same players, the incumbent Adison Kakuru and FDC’s Jack Sabiti will tussel it out again.

While UPC points out that it has got high chances of winning 100 seats, the DP points to its strongholds as the constituencies of Kyadondo North and South constituencies, Busiro South, North and East, Masaka Municipality, Kalungu, Bukoto East and South, Nakawa Division, Kawempe North and South, Mukono Municipality, Arua Municipality Mukono South, Buikwe South and Butambala.

The DP sees its battlegrounds as being Mawokota, Kalungu West, Rubaga South and North constituencies and several in Isingiro.

However, the three counties of Buikwe South, North and West will be the battleground for opposition parties as they all claim it as their stronghold. Currently DP candidate Lulume Bayiga is MP Buikwe South. The NRM controls North and an Independent Norman Muwulize is MP Buikwe West.

The NRM hopes to battle in Mbarara Municipality, where FDC John Kazoora is seen as the stronger candidate, Bugabula South, where NRM incumbent Simon Menhya, an Independent with leaning towards the NRM will tussel it out with FDC vice-Chairperson Salaamu Musumba. NRM also see Bugweri County, where FDC candidate Abdu Katuntu is running as a challenge.

In Buganda, Ofwono says the party will retain all its seats except some in Wakiso District. In Kampala, he says, the vulnerable area is Kawempe.

The seats of Bukoto Central, Kalungu East, Bufumbira East, Dokolo, Vurra and Mwenge counties are predicted to go to the opposition.

In Kasese District, a number of seats held by the NRM are vulnerable as the FDC has made inroads in the last five years, taking advantage of the fight for the restoration of the Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu (Rwenzururu Kingdom).

The NRM is claiming that they are currently in the lead as expected but what they did not expect was that they would have a large number of Independents.

With several contentious parliamentary races to decide, NRM is praying for an outright victory rather than a situation where it may have to depend on the Independent support to pass critical legislation in the house.